脆弱性视角下气象灾害对农村贫困的影响分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】为更好地引导贫困农户增强抵御气象灾害的能力，本文运用全国592个贫困县53271个农户两年贫困监测调查数据，实证分析了脆弱性视角下气象灾害对农村贫困的影响及其作用路径。【方法】根据被解释变量中是否贫困户变量是虚拟变量的特点，采用Logit模型分析气象灾害对农户贫困的影响。【结果】发现水灾、旱灾、冷冻灾害和风灾对贫困地区农户收入和消费有着明显的负向影响。同时，本文还发现气象灾害对贫困地区农村家庭的农业收入和非农业收入有着双重抑制作用。各类灾害的发生明显提高了贫困发生率，加深了贫困程度。【结论】基于分析，本文认为完善农业保险和生态补偿等有利于增强农户应对气象灾害能力的政策，对农村反贫困有重要意义。

关键词: 气象灾害, 脆弱性, 农村贫困, 影响

Abstract: 【Objective】In order to improve the ability of poor farmers to resist the meteorological disasters，this paper makes use of two-year data of poverty inspection carried out among 53271 farmers in 592 counties nationwide, and analyzes the impact of meteorological disasters on rural poverty and its path.【Method】Based on the characteristics of the variable variables in the explanatory variables, the Logit model is used to analyze the impact of meteorological disasters on the poverty of farmers.【Results】The results find that flood, drought, freeze disasters and cyclone significantly have negative impacts on the income and consumption of farmers in poor regions. At the same time, the paper also finds that meteorological disasters have negative effects on agricultural income and non-agricultural income of rural households in poor areas. The happenings of all kinds of disasters obviously increase the incidence of poverty and deepen the poverty.【Conclusion】Based on the analysis, the paper recommends that the policy of perfecting agricultural insurance and ecological aid which is instrumental for enhancing the farmers’ abilities of coping with meteorological disasters, makes a great difference in alleviating poverty of rural areas.

Key words: The meteorological disasters, Vulnerability, Rural poverty, effects

中图分类号:

F328

陈光燕杨浩庄天慧. 脆弱性视角下气象灾害对农村贫困的影响分析[J]. , 2017, 35(04): 0-0.

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