关键词: 粮食安全, 耕地面积, 需求模型, 灰色模型

Abstract: Cultivated land protection is one important portion of area stratagey security. The surveys and prediction of cultivated land area provide an effective way for cultivated land protection. This paper takes 2004 as the base year, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of some factors, such as population. Unit area grain yield, index of multiple plantation, the adjustment of agricultural structure, the farmland demand in construction and so on, discusses the cultivated land demand quantity and effective supply of cultivated land between 2005~2020 by demand model of regional cultivated land area and grey system forecast model. The prediction shows that the effective supply of cultivated land between 2005~2020 is higher than the demand quantity area of low grain self-sufficient rate, but basically is lower than the demand quantity area of high grain self-sufficient rate, and the effective supply of cultivated land is lower respectively than the low and the high grain degree of self-sufficiency rate demand area 56.21×10⁴ hm² and 83.41×10⁴ hm² until 2020.

Key words: food security, cultivated land area, demand model, grey model