关键词: GM (1,1), 预测, 林业三次产业, 产业结构, 四川

Abstract: [Objective] The objective of this study was to provide basis for its future forestry policy through forecasting the development trend of the forestry industrial structure of Sichuan province.[Method] Matlab was used to caculate relevant parameters of GM (1,1) model in different dimensions.Then,the optimal dimension GM (1,1) model with the same dimensional renewal GM (1,1) model was combined to predict the forestry industrial structure of Sichuan province from 2011 to 2020.[Results] Combining the optimal 4D GM (1,1) model with the four-dimensional renewal GM (1,1) model,it made a dynamic forecast of the output value of Sichuan's forestry industry for the next decade (from 2011 to 2020),and calculated the proportional relation among three industries of forest.[Conclusion] The forestry industrial structure of Sichuan province will be "the second industry > the first industry > the tertiary industry" for the years from 2011 to 2016.It will convert to "the second industry > the tertiary industry > the first industry" in 2017.The later one has persistent.

Key words: GM (1,1), prediction, the forestry three industries, industrial structure, Sichuan province