关键词: 四川猪肉价格, VAR模型, 脉冲响应函数, 方差分解

Abstract: Choosing the sample of monthly data of the pork price, the fed hog mixture feedstuffs price, CPI and the beef price from December 2003 to May 2011 in Sichuan, this paper analyzed the influential factors of the pork price fluctuation including the fed hog mixture feedstuffs price, CPI, and the beef price, The impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the foundation of VAR model(vector auto regression model) were adopted.It was concluded that the supply and need of the pig production has the greatest impact on the fluctuation of the pork price, followed by the impact of CPI which is obvious and durable.The volatility of the fed hog mixture feedstuff price only influence the pork price in short run and the beef price has very little contribution on the fluctuation of pork price.The suggestions to stabilize the pork price were given at the end of the paper.

Key words: Sichuan pork price, VAR model, pulse response, variance decomposition