四川农业大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 746-754.doi: 10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.202303230

• 农业经济 • 上一篇    

脱贫农户返贫治理政策能实现“稳脱贫,促共富”吗?——基于模糊断点回归的实证分析

薛增鑫1, 李博伟2,3,4,*   

  1. 1.东北大学文法学院,沈阳 110819;
    2.浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州 311300;
    3.浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,杭州 311300;
    4.浙江农林大学生态文明研究所,杭州 311300
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-08 出版日期:2023-08-28 发布日期:2023-08-31
  • 作者简介:薛增鑫,博士研究生,主要从事贫困治理研究,E-mail:1127627194@qq.com。*责任作者:李博伟,博士,副教授,主要从事农业经济研究,E-mail:1052195380@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省社会科学基金(20NDQN299YB); 浙江省自然科学基金(LQ20G030004); 浙江省高校基础研究基金(2020YQ012)

Can Return to Poverty Management Policies for Out of Poverty Farmers Achieve "Stable Poverty Alleviation and Promoting Common Prosperity"? ——Empirical Analysis Based on Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity

XUE Zengxin1, LI Bowei2,3,4,*   

  1. 1. School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China;
    2. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China;
    3. Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China;
    4. Institute of Ecological Civilization, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
  • Received:2023-03-08 Online:2023-08-28 Published:2023-08-31

摘要: 目的: 面向中国扶贫战略转变的新发展阶段,如何实现脱贫农户长期有效帮扶、缩小收入不平等成为全面实现共同富裕亟待破解的重要课题之一。方法: 基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,通过多维贫困脆弱性和相对剥夺指数测算脱贫农户的返贫风险和收入不平等,采用模糊断点回归的方法,实证检验脱贫不脱政策的“阻返效应”“分配效应”。结果: 研究发现,脱贫不脱政策显著降低了脱贫农户的多维贫困脆弱性和相对剥夺感,表明脱贫不脱政策在“后扶贫时代”有利于形成遏制返贫风险与收入分配改善的双赢局面。进一步研究发现,脱贫不脱政策会显著提高不依赖政府兜底保障脱贫农户的劳动参与和经营性收入,激发其通过劳动改变生活的精神状态,但会使得依赖政府兜底保障脱贫农户产生一定的福利依赖,从而削弱长期稳定脱贫的政策成效。结论: 政府应加强脱贫不脱政策的顶层设计,激发脱贫农户内生发展动力,以实现脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴、共同富裕的有效衔接。

关键词: 脱贫不脱政策, 脱贫农户, 阻返效应, 分配效应, 模糊断点回归

Abstract: 【Objective】 Facing the new development stage of China's poverty alleviation strategy transformation, how to achieve long-term effective assistance for poverty alleviation farmers and reduce income inequality has become one of the important issues to be solved urgently for the comprehensive realization of common prosperity. 【Method】 Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the risk of returning to poverty and income inequality of poverty-stricken households were measured by multidimensional poverty vulnerability and relative deprivation index, and the "prevent the return to poverty effect" and "distribution effect" of Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation Policies were empirically tested by FRD method. 【Result】 It is found that the policies of Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation significantly reduces the multidimensional vulnerability to poverty and the relative sense of deprivation of the farmers out of poverty, indicating that persisting in Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation policies is conducive to the formation of a win-win situation of curbing the risk of returning to poverty and improving income distribution in the post-poverty era. Further research shows that the policies of Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation can significantly improve the labor participation and business income of households that do not rely on the government's guarantee of subsistence, inspire their mental state of through-labor-to-change-life. However, it will make the families who rely on the government to guarantee poverty alleviation have certain welfare dependence, thus weakening the long-term stability of poverty alleviation policy effect. 【Conclusion】 The government should strengthen the top-level design of Maintaining the Sustainability of Poverty Alleviation policies and take multiple measures to enhance the endogenous development momentum of poverty alleviation farmers, so as to realize the connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization and common prosperity.

Key words: policies of maintaining the sustainability of poverty alleviation, out of poverty farmers, prevent the return to poverty effect, distribution effect, FRD

中图分类号: 

  • F061.3