关键词: 农产品价格, 市场整合, 结构突变协整, 阈值协整

Abstract: 【Objective】 To analyze the price impact of China's agricultural product futures market in the international agricultural product futures market and its supply and demand changes is of great significance for us to make good use of both domestic and international markets and two resources. 【Method】 Based on the principle of one price, this paper considers the constraints of agricultural subsidy policies and inter-market transaction costs on traditional linear cointegration, and combines structural mutation cointegration and threshold cointegration (TVECM) on Chinese and international agricultural product futures. Research on market integration issues. 【Result】 Agricultural subsidy policies have a structural impact on the integration of domestic and international prices of corn and soybeans; transaction costs have a certain impact in the cointegration test, because there is no traditional linear cointegration between the domestic and international prices of corn and soybeans, but their threshold co-integration is significant; the threshold co-integration of corn and soybean prices both show that after prices deviate from the equilibrium relationship, the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is asymmetry. 【Conclusion】 Coordinate the domestic and international markets, and adjust the agricultural subsidy policy according to the co-integration relationship between the domestic and international prices of major agricultural products.

Key words: agricultural product prices, market integration, structural mutation cointegration, threshold cointegration