基于Maxent模型的珙桐潜在分布预测及其重要影响因子分析

doi:10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.2021.05.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】探讨末次间冰期以来珙桐地理分布格局的变化过程、了解环境因子对珙桐的影响可为珙桐的有效保护和引种栽培提供理论依据。【方法】基于198条分布记录和17个环境因子,并应用ENMeval数据包优化的Maxent模型模拟珙桐在8种气候情景下的潜在分布区,综合使用环境变量贡献率、置换重要值和刀切法检验评估影响当代珙桐分布的主导环境因子。【结果】 ①当delta. AICc=0时,受试者工作特征曲线面积（训练AUC值）为0.983,表明预测结果极好;珙桐在当代潜在适生区主要集中在四川盆地周围山区、湖南湖北地区的西部、云南的东北部以及贵州梵净山;②温度年较差（bio7, 44.54%）、昼夜温差月均值（bio2, 9.97%）、温度季节变动系数（bio4,7.34%）、年降水量（bio12,13.56%）、最干季降水量（bio17,3.2%）和海拔（elev, 3.46%）为影响珙桐地理分布的主导环境因子;其中气温环境因子和降水环境因子累计贡献率分别为64.06%和16.76%;③在过去气候情景下,珙桐不同等级适生区增加区域主要集中在横断山脉、雪峰山脉和大巴山脉的西南地区,全新世中期珙桐适生区增加面积相较于末次间冰期和末次盛冰期最大;在未来2050年、2070年温室气体低浓度排放情景（RCP2.6）和温室气体高浓度排放情景（RCP8.5）下,珙桐适生区增加面积逐渐缩小。【结论】温度年较差是限制其分布的最主要环境因子;随着全球气候变暖,珙桐适生区面积呈现收缩趋势,对于面积收缩地区,可以采取迁地保护措施,保存其种质资源。

关键词: 珙桐, Maxent, 气候变化, 适生区

Abstract: 【Objective】 Exploring the change process of the geographic distribution pattern of Davidia involucrata since the last interglacial period and understanding the impact of environmental factors on Davidia involucrata can provide a theoretical basis for the effective protection and cultivation of Davidia involucrata. 【Method】 Based on 198 distribution records and 17 environmental variables, this paper uses the Maxent model optimized by the ENMeval data package to simulate the potential distribution area of Davidia involucrata under 8 climatic scenarios, comprehensively using percent contribution rates, permutation importance values and Jackknife tests assess the dominant environmental factors restricting the distribution of modern Davidia involucrata. 【Result】 ①When delta. AICc=0, the receiver operating characteristic curve area (training AUC value) is 0.983, indicating that the prediction results are excellent; Davidia involucrata is mainly concentrated in the mountainous areas surrounding the Sichuan Basin in modern potential suitable areas, the western part of Hubei, Hunan, the northeastern part of Yunnan,and the Fanjing Mountain in Guizhou;②The temperature annual range (bio7, 44.54%), the mean diurnal range (bio2, 9.97%), the temperature seasonality (bio4, 7.34%), the annual precipitation (bio12, 13.56%), the precipitation of driest quarter (bio17, 3.2%) and elevation (elev, 3.46%) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographic distribution of Davidia involucrata; among them, the cumulative contribution rates of temperature and precipitation environmental factors are 64.06% and 16.76% respectively; ③In the past climatic scenarios, the increased areas of different grades of suitable areas for Davidia involucrate mainly concentrated in the southwestern regions of the Hengduan Mountains, Xuefeng Mountains and the southwestern regions of Daba Mountains. Compared with the last interglacial period and the last glacial maximum, the increase in the area suitable for mid-holocene was the largest; under the low-concentration greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6) and the high-concentration greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5) in the future 2050 and 2070, the increasing area of Davidia involucrata was gradually shrinking. 【Conclusion】 Temperature annual range is the most important environmental factor that restricts its distribution. With the global warming, the area of Davidia involucrata is gradually shrinking. For areas with shrinking, ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.

Key words: Davidia involucrate, Maxent, climate change, suitable areas

中图分类号:

S792.99

叶利奇, 张伟皓, 叶兴状, 刘益鹏, 张国防, 刘宝, 阮少宁. 基于Maxent模型的珙桐潜在分布预测及其重要影响因子分析[J]. 四川农业大学学报, 2021, 39(5): 604-612.

YE Liqi, ZHANG Weihao, YE Xingzhuang, LIU Yipeng, ZHANG Guofang, LIU Bao, RUAN Shaoning. Prediction of Potential Distribution Area and Analysis of Dominant Environmental Variables of Davidia involucrate Based on Maxent[J]. Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University, 2021, 39(5): 604-612.

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