四川农业大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (03): 365-372.doi: 10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.2020.03.017

• • 上一篇    

农户分化视角下农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险因素识别与评估——基于四川成都的调研数据

宋坤, 张馨予   

  1. 四川农业大学经济学院,成都 611130
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-30 出版日期:2020-06-28 发布日期:2021-02-03
  • 作者简介:宋坤,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事农村金融研究,E-mail:sk@sicau.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金后期资助项目(19FJYB053)

Identification and Evaluation of Credit Risk Factors of Agricultural Land Management Right Mortgage Loan from the Perspective of Farmers' Differentiation——Based on the Survey Data of Chengdu, Sichuan

SONG Kun, ZHANG Xinyu   

  1. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China
  • Received:2019-05-30 Online:2020-06-28 Published:2021-02-03

摘要: 【目的】研究政府主导型农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险问题,为金融机构进一步推广该类贷款提供借鉴。【方法】以四川成都实地调研数据为样本,通过Logistic模型探讨影响政府主导型农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险的主要因素,在采用CRITIC法界定信用风险区间后利用支持向量机进行评估。【结果】家庭总资产、家庭年净收入、经营主体类型、流入农地面积、作物估值、作物价格波动、抵押物类型以及有无担保对信用风险具有显著影响;采用Logistic-SVM模型评估的结果表明仅有2.74%的贷款处于高风险状态,且新型农业经营主体的信用风险小于传统小农户。【结论】鉴于异质性农户的信用风险具有显著差异,政府主导型农地经营权抵押贷款应大力服务于种养大户、家庭农场、专业合作社和龙头企业等新型农业经营主体;金融机构应加强与商业性担保机构的合作,健全传统小农户的征信体系;同时应完善相关配套服务措施。

关键词: 农户分化, 政府主导型, 农地经营权抵押贷款, 信用风险评估, Logistic-SVM模型

Abstract: 【Objective】 To study the credit risk of government-led agricultural land management rights mortgage loans, and provide reference for financial institutions to further promote such loans. 【Method】 Based on the field survey data of Chengdu, Sichuan, the main factors affecting the credit risk of government-led agricultural land management mortgage loans were discussed through Logistic model. The CRITIC method was used to define the credit risk interval and after that the support vector machine was used to evaluate. 【Result】 Factors including household total assets, household annual net income, type of business entity, inflowing agricultural land area, crop valuation, crop price fluctuation, collateral type and whether there is guarantee have significant impact on credit risk; using Logistic-SVM model for early warning and the results show that only 2.74% of loans are at high risk, and the credit risk of new agricultural operators is smaller than that of traditional small farmers. 【Conclusion】 In view of the sig-nificant difference in credit risk of heterogeneous farmers, government-led agricultural land management rights mortgage loans should mainly serve the new agricultural business entities such as large-scale breeding/planting farmers, family farms, professional cooperatives and leading enterprises; Financial institutions should strengthen cooperation with commercial guarantee institutions and improve the credit system of traditional small farmers. At the same time, relevant supporting service measures should be improved.

Key words: farmer differentiation, government-led, farmland management rights mortgage, credit risk assessment, Logistic-SVM model

中图分类号: 

  • F832.43