四川农业大学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (06): 842-851.doi: 10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.2019.06.014

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黄河源区1961—2017降水序列趋势及突变识别

马莲1, 卢素锦1,*, 司剑华2, 谷鑫鑫2, 黄丽娜1, 祁玥1, 马生丽1, 李树森1, 赵梓祺1, 桂子菊1, 李红梅3   

  1. 1.青海大学生态环境工程学院,西宁 810016;
    2.青海大学农牧学院,西宁 810016;
    3.青海省气候中心,西宁 810016
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-20 出版日期:2019-12-28 发布日期:2021-01-31
  • 作者简介:马莲,研究生。*责任作者:卢素锦,教授,主要从事环境监测与评价研究,Email:lusujin88@163.com。

Rend and Mutation Indentification of Precipitation Sequence in The Source Region of The Yellow River

MA Lian1, LU Sujin1,*, SI Jianhua2, GU Xinxin2, HUANG Lina1, QI Yue1, MA Shengli1, LI Shusen1, ZHAO Ziqi1, GUI Ziju1, LI Hongmei3   

  1. 1. College of Ecol-Environment Engineering,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;
    2. College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;
    3. Climate Center of Qinghai Province,Xining 810016,China
  • Received:2018-06-20 Online:2019-12-28 Published:2021-01-31

摘要: 【目的】通过对黄河园源区降水序列趋势及突变特征的识别分析,为水资源规划提供科学依据。【方法】运用Mann-Kendall秩序检验法、滑动T检验法、ArcGIS地图法等,对黄河源区9个气象站点1961—2017年降水趋势及突变点进行诊断与识别。【结果】1961—2017年,黄河源区的年降水序列呈微弱上升趋势,源区内降水序列在2002年发生突变。春季、夏季、冬季降水序列分别在1975年、1980年,2002年,1997年发生突变,秋季降水序列未发生显著突变。1961—2017年源区东南部和西北部年降水增加趋势明显,源区内甘德、河南、久治、玛沁、兴海在57年间发生突变。【结论】黄河源区近57年来,降水量呈现增加趋势,季节降水变化显著,局部区域降水波动较大,对黄河源区农牧业发展有利。

关键词: 黄河源区, 降水趋势, 降水突变点

Abstract: 【Objective】 The aim of the study was to identify the characteristics of the trends and mutations of precipitation sequence in the source region of the Yellow River and to provide a scientific basis for water resources planning in this region. 【Method】 Mann-Kendall order test method, moving T-test technique and ArcGIS map method were used to diagnose and identify the precipitation trends and mutation points of 9 meteorological stations in the Yellow River source area from 1961 to 2017. 【Result】 The annual precipita-tion sequence in the source region of the Yellow River showed a slight upward trend from 1961 to 2017 and the precipitation sequence in this region abruptly changed in 2002. Spring precipitation sequence had a mutation in 1975,1980. Summer and winter precipitation showed a mutation in 2002 and 1997, respecti-vely. There was no significant mutation in autumn precipitation sequence. Obvious increase in annual precipitation was found from 1961—2017 in the southeast and northwest of the source area. A mutation occurred in Gande,Henan,Jiuzhi,Maqin and Xinghai in 1957. 【Conclusion】 In the past 57 years,the precipitation of the Yellow River exhibited an significant increase trend. There was obvious seasonal change in precipitation. The precipitation in local areas fluctuates greatly, which could be beneficial to the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in this area.

Key words: the source region of the Yellow River, precipitation trend, precipitation mutation point

中图分类号: 

  • P467