四川农业大学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (05): 708-716.doi: 10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.2018.05.020

• • 上一篇    

我国三七价格波动特征与变动规律研究————以云南文山三七为例

闫桂权, 何玉成*, 聂飞   

  1. 华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-26 出版日期:2018-10-28 发布日期:2021-03-01
  • 通讯作者: 何玉成, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事产业组织与战略管理、农林经济管理研究, E-mail:hych@mail.hzau.edu.cn。
  • 作者简介:闫桂权,硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    农业农村部、财政部国家中药材产业技术体系专项(CARS-21);国家自然科学基金项目“集中度对乳品供应链垂直协作影响的理论与实证研究”(71573098)。

Research on the Characteristics of Price Fluctuation and the Rule of Price Changes of Panax Notoginseng in China: Taking Yunnan Wenshan Panax Notoginseng as an Example

YAN Guiquan, HE Yucheng*, NIE Fei   

  1. College of Economics & Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China
  • Received:2018-05-26 Online:2018-10-28 Published:2021-03-01

摘要: 【目的】加深对三七价格变动的趋势和周期以及三七价格波动的本质特征的认识。【方法】基于云南文山2013年7月1日至2017年8月7日的5种规格三七的价格数据,运用H-P滤波和ARCH类模型对我国三七价格波动进行了实证分析。【结果】①观察期内三七价格走势整体呈现先降后升的U型,分为剧烈波动-平稳波动-剧烈波动3个周期;②三七价格季节性波动明显,其中40头、60头、80头、120头规格的三七的季节性波动整体都呈现倒U型,并且三七价格波动进一步受到不规则变动的影响而加剧;③40头规格三七价格不存在异方差性;④其他规格三七的价格波动均呈现显著的集簇性,价格波动会随着时间向后期扩散,难以在短期内逐渐减弱并消失;⑤三七市场不具有高风险高回报的特征,三七市场的投资者预期风险程度与投资回报率之间的关系并不密切;⑥无数头规格三七的价格波动呈现非对称性,表现为利好信息引起的波动大于利空信息引起的波动。【结论】完善三七相关信息披露机制;建立健全三七价格预警机制;积极关注与警惕三七价格上涨的因素;借助现代金融工具防范三七市场风险。

关键词: 三七价格, 价格波动特征, 价格变动规律, H-P滤波, ARCH类模型

Abstract: 【Objective】 In order to deepen the understanding of the trend and cycle of price changes and the essential characteristics of price fluctuations of Panax Notoginseng. 【Method】 Based on the price data of the five kinds of specifications of Yunnan Wenshan Notoginseng from July 1, 2013 to August 7,2017,applying the H-P filter and ARCH-types models to analyze the price fluctuation of Notoginseng. 【Result】 ①the trend of price could be described as a U-shaped curve,and the prices experienced three cycles including violent fluctuation-stationary fluctuation-violent fluctuation during the test period;②seasonal fluctuation of prices was obvious,the seasonal fluctuations of prices for 40 tou-size, 60 tou-size, 80 tou-size and 120 tou-size Notoginseng were all inverted U-shaped curves, and the price fluctuations were further intensified by the impact of irregular changes;③the prices of 40 tou-size Notoginseng didn't exist heteroscedasticity;④the price fluctuations for other sizes of Notoginseng specifications were clustered significantly,price fluctuations spread over time and are difficult to fade and disappear in the short term;⑤Notoginseng market didn't have the characteristics of high risk with high rewards,The relationship between the expected risk degree of investors and the return rate of investment was not close;⑥since the fluctuation caused by the bull news was greater than the bad news,the price fluctuation of the Wushutou-size Notoginseng was asymmetric. 【Conclusion】 Improving the related information disclosure mechanism of Notoginseng;establishing and improving the price early warning mechanism;actively paying attention to the factors that alert the price rise;using modern financial tools to prevent the risk of Notoginseng market.

Key words: Panax Notoginseng price, characteristics of price fluctuation, rule of price changes, H-P filter, ARCH-type models

中图分类号: 

  • F329.9