关键词: 条锈病, 耕作方式, 气候条件, 面板数据固定效应, 极大似然分位回归

Abstract: 【Objective】 The effect of different tillage methods and different growth stages of climatic conditions on wheat stripe rust. 【Method】 Analysis the influence of climatic conditions on the stripe rust under different farming methods at different stages of birth,using fixed effect panel data model and the maximum likelihood quantile regression model,according to panel data on the incidence of wheat stripe rust under different farming methods (CK、WZRR、WZRZ) from 2007 to 2016 in Chengdu plain. 【Result】The results of fixation effect showed that the positive effect of CK on the incidence of stripe rust was slightly lower than WZRR and WZRZ. The results of quantile regression showed that the higher the daily average temperature,the more rain days,fog days,the easier it is to promote the germination of spores in the seedling stage. At tillering jointing stage,the positive effects of daily mean temperature and mean humidity were different. With the increasing of temperature and humidity,the effect of promoting the spread of stripe rust is increasing gradually. At heading booting stage,the higher the daily average temperature,the more conducive to the vertical expansion of stripe rust,the more humid environment is more conducive to the occurrence of stripe rust,causing repeated infection. 【Conclusion】 The effects of the three tillage on wheat stripe rust were not significant,daily average temperature and average humidity were significantly.

Key words: stripe rust, tillage methods, climatic conditions, panel data fixed effect, maximum likelihood quantile regression