关键词: 土地利用变化, CA-Markov模型, 山区, 动态模拟

Abstract: [Objective] In order to discuss the change of the future land-use in the mountainous region of rapid development. [Method] Taking Majiang County of Guizhou province as the study area, in this paper we simulated the land use pattern in 2022 based on the land use data in 1992, 2002 and 2012, and then analyzed the evolution characteristics of the land use pattern using the CA-Markov model. [Results] The results show that:cultivated land, unused land, grassland of the study area in 2022 will decline, while woodland, construction land and water body will increase. Concerning the landscape fragmentation, cultivated land, woodland, grassland and unused land will decrease, while construction land will increase, but the water body has a little change. LSI of cultivated land, woodland, grassland, construction land tend to be in regularization, while LSI of unused land will become more complex, but LSI of water body has a little change. AI of all the land use types will increase except for unused land. In general, landscape fragmentation of the study area will decrease, and LSI will decrease. The proportion of each land use type tends to be in equalization, and AI will increase. [Conclusion] The model has a high simulation accuracy for the land use in mountainous area. The results could provide a foundation for the research of land optimization.

Key words: land use change, CA-Markov model, mountainous region, simulation