关键词: 四川农民现金收入, Johansen协整检验, VEC模型

Abstract: [Objective] To develop the dynamic econometrics analysis of influential factors for the fluctuation of farmers' cash income in Sichuan.[Method] Choosing the sample of quarter data of the farmer cash income,the household management income,the wage income and the transfer income in Sichuan province from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2010,the paper analyzed the influence of household management income,the wage income and the transfer income for the fluctuation of the farmer cash income,which uses the Johansen cointegration test and the VEC model (Vector Error Correction model).[Results] In short run,the household management income,the wage income and the transfer income of the preceding term have a positive effect on the cash income of current term,among which the household management income has the most positive impression.In the long run,the wage income and the transfer income have positive influence,while the household management income has negative impact.[Conclusion] This study is useful for the government of Sichuan province to guide the agricultural production and increase the cash income of farmers.

Key words: Cash income of farmers in Sichuan, Johansen cointegration test, VEC model