关键词: 农户, 生产决策模型, 粮食消费, 价格风险, 西南民族地区

Abstract: [Objective] The objective of the study was to study the farmer's production decision-making behavior in poverty-stricken area in southwest China. [Methods] This paper established a production decision model both facing output risks and price risks and leading consumption factors into decision-making behavior analysis. Guizhou buyi and miao autonomous prefecture were taken as an example, the farmer's decision-making behavior of corn and rice was analyzed by this model in southwest China. [Results] First, the consumption considerable of farmers played an important role in the production decision. The consumption influence on production is not due to changes in relative prices made adjustments to expect consumption change, but is mainly due to the risk aversion. Second, along with the increase of population density, rice planting area declined, and was larger than the corn planting area. The more poor farmers, the poor areas tend to consume more corn. Third, the main food crops-rice planting area of decision making for other related crops profits have the strong reaction, corn production decision factor response for profit was not big, but for risk response obviously, indicating that poor areas corn played an important role in stabilizing consumer spending. [Conclusions] The self-sufficient agriculture pattern caused by semi-closed market in the poverty-stricken areas enable farmers to grab a bigger profits in commercial policy.

Key words: household, production decision model, food consumption, price risk, poverty-stricken area in southwest China