四川农业大学学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (03): 392-396.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

基于风险控制视角的土地供给政策参与宏观调控的理论与实证研究——以东部13省市为例?

杨志荣1,尹奇2,张华3,姚岚2   

  1. 1. 贵州省贵州民族学院
    2.
    3. 四川农业大学
  • 收稿日期:2010-03-23 修回日期:2010-05-07 出版日期:2010-09-30 发布日期:2010-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 张华
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划课题“保障宏观经济安全运行的土地动态监控关键技术”

A Theroetical and Empirical Study on Land Supply Policy Participation into Macro-economy Intervenetion: from the Perspective of the Risk Control——A Case study of 13 provinces

  • Received:2010-03-23 Revised:2010-05-07 Online:2010-09-30 Published:2010-09-30
  • Contact: ZHANG Hua ZHANG HuaZHANG Hua

摘要:

以非均衡理论与生存理论为理论基础,风险控制为研究视角,以东部13省市为例对土地供给政策参与宏观经济调控进行研究,研究结果表明研究区域在1994—2005年间土地供给与土地需求处于非均衡状态,其中2000、2002、2003、2004、2005年研究区土地市场非均衡度处于-0.1≤Z≤0.1的适度非均衡区域内不需要政府进行直接调控,而剩下的5个年度则需要减少土地供给的数量以调控土地市场的非均衡度处于适度非均衡区域。

关键词: 土地政策, 宏观调控, 非均衡理论, 生存理论

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the reform of land supply on the control of Macro-economy based on the disequilibrium theory and the survival theory, from the perspective of risk control. The results indicate that land supply and demand were a disequilibrium state during 1987~2005, especially while disequilibrium degree of land market was -0.1≤Z≤0.1 in 2000、2002、2003、2004、2005, government adjusting control was not be needed. The quantity of the land supply was be reduced to adjust and control disequilibrium degree of land market to be a in the moderate disequilibrium areas in the rest of years. It is concluded that the disequilibrium of demand and supply was a normal state in the disequilibrium theoretical system, the purpose of macro-economy intervention by land supply policy was that the disequilibrium degree of suppy and demand in land market was kept in the moderate disequilibrium areas.

Key words: land policy, Macro-control, the disequilibrium theory, the survival theory