四川农业大学学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (04): 408-412.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2650.2014.04.009

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基于光温指数的切花百合生育期预测模型

董永义, 王聪, 杨恒山   

  1. 内蒙古民族大学农学院, 内蒙古 通辽 028042
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-14 出版日期:2014-12-31 发布日期:2017-02-28
  • 作者简介:董永义,博士,副教授。主要从事观赏植物栽培模拟与决策研究,E-mail:dongyong74@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(31260483);内蒙古民族大学科研创新团队项目(NMD1003)资助

A Model of Predicting Development of Cut Lily Based on Photo-thermal Index

DONG Yong-yi, WANG Cong, YANG Heng-shan   

  1. College of Agriculture, Inner Mongolia University for Nationalities, Tongliao 028042, Inner Mongolia, China
  • Received:2014-11-14 Online:2014-12-31 Published:2017-02-28

摘要: [目的] 准确预测切花百合生产的上市期。[方法] 根据切花百合(Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv. ‘Sorbonne’)的生长发育对光温效应的反应,利用不同定植日期的试验数据,建立以光温指数(photo-thermal index,PTI)为尺度参数的切花百合生育期预测模型,并运用独立的数据对其进行验证。[结果] 结果表明,模型对切花百合定植-出苗、出苗-展叶、展叶-现蕾、现蕾-采收各生育期持续时间预测值与实测值之间的回归估计标准误差(root mean squared error,RMSE)分别为1.58、2.23、2.54、1.58d;与有效积温法(RMSE分别为4.74、3.54、6.21、5.38d)为尺度的发育模型相比,模型的预测精度显著提高。[结论] 该模型的预测结果能为切花百合的生产和调控提供理论依据。

关键词: 切花百合, 光温指数, 生育期, 模型

Abstract: [Objective] The aim of this study was to accurately predict the harvest period of cut lily. [Method] Based on photo-thermal responses of cut lily,experimental data from different planting dates were used to develop a model for development of Lilium Oriental Hybrids cv. ‘Sorbonne’.Then,the model was tested by independent experimental date. [Results] The results showed that root mean squared error (RMSE)between simulated and observed data (planting,sprouting,leaf unfolding,visible bud and harvest)were 1.58,2.23,2.54 and 1.58,respectively.Compared with effective accumulated temperature method (RMSE 4.74,3.54,6.21 and 5.38),the development model based photo-thermal index increased the simulation accuracy significantly. [Conclusion] The model developed in this study can provide a theoretical foundation for predicting the harvest period of cut lily.

Key words: cut lily, photo-thermal index, development stage, model

中图分类号: 

  • S685.23