四川农业大学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (03): 345-349.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2650.2013.03.020

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基于ARIMA模型的民勤县肉羊产业的分析与预测

王丽娟, 叶得明   

  1. 甘肃农业大学经济管理学院, 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-17 出版日期:2013-09-30 发布日期:2017-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 叶得明,副教授,主要从事农业经济管理方面的研究,E-mail:775068322@qq.com。 E-mail:775068322@qq.com
  • 作者简介:王丽娟,硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃农业大学盛彤笙科技创新基金项目(编号:GAU-CX1128)

Analysis and Forecast of Sheep Industry Based on the ARIMA Model in Minqin County

WANG Li-juan, YE De-ming   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2012-10-17 Online:2013-09-30 Published:2017-02-28

摘要: [目的] 肉羊产业是民勤县畜牧业发展的重点,对其肉羊存栏量进行预测,为民勤县寻求肉羊产业快速持续发展对策提供科学依据。[方法] 运用ARIMA模型进行预测。[结果] 民勤县未来短时期内肉羊存栏量呈较快的增长趋势。[结论] 加大草畜产业扶持力度,科学引导,合理布局,发挥本地优势;积极推广牧草秸秆青贮、氨化技术和牧草高产栽培技术,提高饲草料的利用效率,从而解决饲草料短缺问题;并通过举办培训班、科技入户、技术咨询等多种形式,加强对畜牧养殖户的技术培训指导,促进肉羊产业持续快速发展。

关键词: 肉羊产业, ARIMA模型, 预测

Abstract: [Objective] Mutton sheep industry is very important for the development of Minqin county's animal husbandry.The purpose of this study is to analyze the production of mutton sheep in Minqin county,and to provide scientific basis for the countermeasures of sustainable and rapid development of mutton sheep industry in Minqin county.[Method] Using ARIMA model to forecast.[Results] The breeding stock of mutton sheep in Minqin county would grow fast in the near future.[Conclusion] In order to promote the sustainable and rapid development of.mutton sheep industry in Minqin county,more support on livestock industry,scientific guidance,and reasonable layout are necessary to make good use of the local advantages.Besides,Actively promote the technology of Straw Ensiling and Ammoniation,grass high-yield cultivation,and improve the efficiency in the use of grass to solve the shortage of grass;Carry out training course,science and technology entering farmers,and technology consultation to strengthen the technology training and guide for animal breeders.

Key words: mutton sheep industry, ARIMA model, forecast

中图分类号: 

  • S-9